Stephen Cobb

Welcome to the fourth season of State AG Pulse. In this season, we’re diving into the state and federal political landscape in the run-up to the  general election. We’re talking with our colleagues at Cozen Public Strategies to uncover information and insights to help business leaders make better decisions. Welcome back to another installment of State AG Pulse. My name is Stephen Cobb. I’m a partner here at Cozen O’Connor’s State AG practice. With me today is my colleague, Keturah Taylor. Keturah, welcome to the podcast.

Keturah Taylor

Thanks, Stephen. Great to be back again.

Stephen Cobb

For those who are tuning in, they know that this year we’ve been focused especially on the  election cycle. We’ve been going through some of the issues that are pervasive in the AG space. We’ve looked at some different regions and some of the most contested races. Today we’re going to talk about a region of the country, may or may not be the most contested races, but what we are going to see is a bit of a changing of the guard. So we’re going to talk a little bit about Washington State and we’re going to talk about Oregon. These are two states that have had AGs, who themselves have become institutions, Bob Ferguson in Washington, and Ellen Rosenblum in Oregon. They have been wonderful leaders in this space for such a long time, and so it is no small feat that we were going to have some fresh faces in those offices come next January. So Keturah, why don’t you kick us off a little bit and tell us about the state of play in your home state of Oregon.

Keturah Taylor

Stephen, I’m so excited to be talking about Oregon and Washington today as a native Oregonian. I love the Pacific Northwest, and as you know, I actually live in Portland Oregon these days, so I’ve been paying very close attention to the Oregon primary that wrapped up in late May, and certainly looking forward to the Washington Primary, which is coming up on August th.

Stephen Cobb

So we had the primary in Oregon a couple of weeks back. We know who our candidates are as Dan Rayfield, former house speaker Will Lathrop, attorney, Republican kind of being there on the ground. How did you see some of the messaging bubble up from these two campaigns as they were going through their primary months there in Oregon?

Keturah Taylor

Sure. So I think Dan Rayfield had a really strong run up to the primary. He did have one challenger, but I would say all things considered not necessarily a very serious challenger. She wasn’t running much of a campaign. So it was great to see that he got the Democratic nomination, but not necessarily a surprise. He’s really well known in Oregon and he’s been in the state legislature since 2015 . He actually represents the district that my hometown is in, so I’ve certainly known his name for a long time and he’s got a relatively high profile in Oregon politics. Will Lathrop, as someone living in the state, I haven’t heard a huge amount about, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not running a strong campaign. He’s a former prosecutor and previously worked with human trafficking organizations and I think especially as a former prosecutor, his message might hit home with a lot of the voters in Oregon who are pretty concerned with issues surrounding crime and substance abuse and homelessness. They’re both in the general election now. We’ll see how those campaigns develop over the next couple months with somewhat competing messages.

Stephen Cobb

Yeah, let’s talk about those messages a little bit. I mean it’s Oregon is predominantly democratic state. The Twenty-Twenty presidential race, Biden won by . points. General Rosenblum won by .. So there is a bit of an uphill slog for any Republican running statewide in Oregon. But what are some of those issues that you think are going to define the state attorney general race in Oregon? Or is this more of a, this is a presidential cycle, federal politics will dominate and they’re both trying to run on the top of the ticket’s coattails?

Keturah Taylor

Great question. I can certainly speak to the topics that are hitting home with Oregon voters these days. As far as the influence that the federal ticket will have on this, I won’t pretend to be a politically savvy insider on that topic, but as far as those issues that will take priority, certainly public discourse in the Northwest in Portland and Seattle, as with most large West Coast cities is about substance abuse problems. It’s about homelessness, it’s about affordable housing. And then of course in the Pacific Northwest we have beautiful natural resources. So environmental protection is always a priority for the voters who live there. And I foresee Rayfield and Lathrop talking a lot about crime and homelessness and substance abuse. I think the difference is going to be what they propose to do about it.

Stephen Cobb

Now have you heard the candidates… When we talk about an AG’s role as a law enforcement officer, that really varies from state to state. They have different roles that they can play, but they can always take the bully pulpit, so to speak, and be a leader regardless of where their offices fall on some of those issues. Have you seen Dan take a bit more of a conservative view toward law enforcement and crime? Is he planning to follow in Ellen’s footsteps? Kind of what view have you seen him taking on that important issue?

Keturah Taylor

I wouldn’t call it a more kind of conservative stance, but I think he probably knows that voters in Oregon are becoming a little bit more moderate when it comes to these issues. Our listeners may or may not be familiar with an experiment of sorts that the state of Oregon ran a few years ago in decriminalizing certain types of narcotics and just this last legislative session we voted to roll that back. So it was a bit of a failed experiment and I think voters in Oregon kind of recognized that perhaps wasn’t the best approach. And I think they’re looking for their elected officials to take a very pragmatic approach to these issues and maybe pull back from the more extreme liberal stances that may have been taken four or five years ago. I think Dan Rayfield knows that, and as far as I know, his messaging so far has reflected that understanding.

Stephen Cobb

I’ve had the privilege of speaking with Speaker Rayfield a few times. I know he’s really focused on the issues. I would describe him as a bit of a budget walk. I think he’s very in tune to the resources available in Oregon government and taking a role in leading in its citizens’ lives and has been very focused on what that will mean should he be successful as AG. Are there any wedge issues that you think in Oregon when it comes to the role of Attorney General that could provide a lane for his Republican counterpart? Because it is, as I mentioned before, it is challenging for a Republican to win in a state that traditionally goes  points plus to the other side.

Keturah Taylor

Sure. Will Lathrop does have a background as a prosecutor. He specialized in prosecuting child sex abuse cases, which I would say is distinctly nonpartisan. And he also worked for an anti-human trafficking organization for a number of years. I think in that lane, he’ll certainly appeal to some voters as someone with experience prosecuting serious crimes. And as someone who has that background in combating human trafficking, which as you and I know from living in this AG world, is a really high priority for a lot of AGs across the country. And they take a lot of actions, again to combat human trafficking. And when they do that, I think their constituents really appreciate that and it resonates with them. So I think if anything, that might be the lane that is most successful for Will Lathrop, but like you said, it’s definitely an uphill battle.

Stephen Cobb

So with that, looking into your crystal ball, who’s going to be the new attorney general for the great state of Oregon come November?

Keturah Taylor

I’m going to have to hand it to Dan Rayfield, but I do think Will Lathrop will probably, he will put up a good campaign and we’ll see some good public discourse leading up to the election. But I would be shocked if Rayfield’s not sitting in the office next January.

Stephen Cobb

Well, I don’t think that’s going too far out in the limb, so I’m going to push you a little bit farther and say, do you think that he will eclipse Ellen’s margin of . points from four years ago?

Keturah Taylor

Oh, good question. Eclipse, I’m not sure. I think Ellen had a lot… She was the incumbent for a long time, so that certainly gave her a boost. And I’m not sure if she had any serious challenges during those past cycles. So Eclipse, I’m not sure, maybe hit about the same margin.

Stephen Cobb

Okay. All right.

Keturah Taylor

Give us your crystal ball read, Stephen.

Stephen Cobb

Yeah, I was going to say for our listeners, you heard it here first. Keturah is banking it at Rayfield by ., and I think that’s interesting. I think, I agree with you. I think that Speaker Rayfield is likely to win. I think for any first time candidate asking them to meet the measure of a three-time incumbent is tough. I would take the under and I would predict  to  points.

Keturah Taylor

All right. We’ll see. We’ll have to bet something on it, but we’ll discuss that offline.

Stephen Cobb

Not to be outdone, your neighbors to the North Washington state having their own primary coming up. I believe that, as you mentioned before, August th. Washington is unique, is one of the handful of states that does a top two primary. And so the top two vote getters in the primary regardless of political party advanced to the general election. Why don’t you tell our listeners a little bit about the candidates who were in the race?

Keturah Taylor

Sure. We have two Democrats and one Republican. Democrats are Nick Brown and Manka Dhingra. So Nick Brown has a great background. He served in the army as a JAG officer, came back to his home state of Washington and was appointed as general counsel for then Governor Jay Inslee. And then after that he was nominated in  by Joe Biden to be the US Attorney for Western Washington. And he held that post for two years and then resigned last summer to run for Attorney General. And our other democratic candidate, Manka Dhingra. She’s a state senator and deputy majority leader of the Senate. She represents a legislative district just outside Seattle. She’s also been a senior deputy prosecuting attorney for nearly  years and has a robust background dealing with, she has supervised a mental health court and a veterans court and she’s worked closely with law enforcement on issues like crisis intervention and de-escalation.

Both of the democratic candidates in Washington I think have robust backgrounds that would serve them well in the office of the Attorney General. And then we have Pete Serrano who’s the Republican candidate. He is general counsel for an organization called the Silent Majority Foundation, which is a conservative advocacy organization and he’s in his second term on the Pasco City Council and serves as that town’s mayor. And Pasco is in eastern Washington. So that’s for people who are familiar with Oregon and Washington, they’re similar in that the eastern portions of both states are deeply conservative but have relatively low populations, which is why both states swing blue.

Stephen Cobb

It’s interesting. President Biden won Washington with a margin of . points, but AG Ferguson only won with a margin of just under . One of the interesting things there is it is a bit rare to see what is effectively a six plus point split ticket. That is exceedingly rare in many cases. And it’s going to be interesting because not only are we going to have a new attorney general in Washington, they’re going to have a new governor. And so Bob Ferguson, who has been a bit of an institution himself within the AG community, particularly during the four years of the Trump administration, he was one of the leaders of opposing the Muslim ban and several other pieces of affirmative litigation against the Trump administration, clearly found a niche for himself in that space for the people of Washington. His office was also very much known as being on the front foot when it came to consumer protection issues and data privacy issues.

And so he should be a very much a known quantity, not unlike Governor Inslee who is there for several terms himself. So it’ll be interesting to see what, if any, coattails General Ferguson has running at the top of the ticket for any potential Democrat who would make it to the runoff. I’ve heard the candidate speak and you were apt to point out their varying different backgrounds and they each have a very interesting narrative and foothold to bring to bear as candidates. Nick, first time candidate, but having had two very high profile legal positions in the state as general counsel to the governor and US Attorney on the other side of that, he is a first time candidate, whereas his counterparts have both been elected officials, have a base of support, used to raising money, used to campaigning and so that they have kind of their own lane in which to run.

But it’s going to be very interesting to see how this plays out in August. I think it’s going to be heavily impacted by turnout. And so as we look at these issues to see it is possible that you could have two Democrats come out of that primary. I tend to think that that is not likely to be the case. If you look at what the partisan split is in the state, times are very successful. But when Republicans are regularly carrying  plus percent, to me that looks like in a primary, that is a baked in number for the Republican AG candidate, that those folks aren’t likely to swing. And so it’ll be interesting to see even if a Democrat and splitting that vote finishes a top of a Republican in the August primary,

Keturah Taylor

He’s definitely at an advantage that he’s the only Republican on the primary ticket. So I won’t disagree with you on that prediction.

Stephen Cobb

Now, I know it is an entire state away, but have you looked at some of the issues that you think are prevailing in the Washington primary?

Keturah Taylor

I can’t say I’ve paid as close attention, but I think the issues that Washington voters care about are very similar to those of Oregon voters. I mean, Seattle is another large city that Portland has dealt with very serious issues surrounding crime and homelessness. And of course there’s also the biggest difference that I would point out between Seattle and Portland is that Seattle is a massive technology hub. And so like you said, Bob Ferguson has been on the forefront of prosecuting consumer protection issues, especially those relating to big tech. And I think that voters there will pay a little bit more attention to how candidates interact or view the government as interacting with big tech and those large companies that are based there.

Stephen Cobb

Yeah, I mean that’s a great point. One of the other things that I’ve heard both of the Democratic candidates speak about is their role in preserving and upholding democracy and voting rights, not just in Washington state, but across the country. That is an issue that you’re hearing many AGs weigh in their races around the country. And it’s an area of going concern given the upheaval that happened during the last presidential cycle. And so to hear Nick talk, that is usually one of his top three or four priorities is in how do we build trust in the institutions? How do we make voting transparent, safe and easy? And it is an issue that I think will continue to permeate not just in Washington state but elsewhere.

Keturah Taylor

Absolutely.

Stephen Cobb

How have you seen that issue bubble up, not just in Washington, but in Oregon as well?

Keturah Taylor

Well, one thing I love about being an Oregon voter is that we get mail-in voting. So we’ve had it for a long time, which I think makes voting really easy in Oregon. I don’t believe Washington has mail-in voting at this point, but if I’m wrong about that, we can delete it from the podcast. But I think you’re right that that’s a topic that people are paying attention to, especially after the last presidential election cycle. And that message that Nick’s bringing especially will certainly ring true with a lot of voters. That being said, I think the attorney general position is an interesting one because they do get to weigh on more national issues like that, but it’s also very local.

And so while voters are certainly interested in hearing about election integrity and how their state elected officials will either push back on or support federal, federal executive priorities or agency priorities, they’re also very interested in what are you going to do for our community here at home? I think, I’ve heard Nick Brown speak, and I think that his message balances those priorities well, both speaking about upholding democracy and these kind of larger more national issues and also focusing on what they’re dealing with in the state of Washington.

Stephen Cobb

And Keturah, we’re not going to delete it from the podcast because education is power. Washington State does offer vote by mail, and for those of you who need more information, you can go to the Secretary of State’s website and Washington State at Sos.wa.gov, and they have all the information and timetables of when those ballots are sent out to eligible voters.

Keturah Taylor

Fantastic. What do you think about, like you said, AG Ferguson has been an institution, he’s been in the office for a long time. How do you see that office changing under new leadership?

Stephen Cobb

Well, it’s interesting because anytime somebody comes in to office, no matter how successful and great their predecessors have been, they’re going to want to remake the office a little bit into their own image. And that changes often on not just legal/policy priority, but on the way they manage and the way they lead. And so I think that each of these candidates are likely to not change everything day one, but definitely have their own ideas and put some muscle into molding that office in a way that can kind of conform with those priorities. And so looking at each one of them, Nick being the former US Attorney that he is being someone who worked as counsel to the governor, I think that there will be a reorganization in a way similar to that which he’s already used to managing. And so that means there are usually a lot of verticals in a US Attorney’s office, dedicated lanes based on criminal civil, and then sub portions beneath that.

I think you could really see Mayor Serrano lean more into the criminal justice and prosecutorial opportunities within that office. And when you take somebody out of a legislature, they have usually show a natural affinity to build out legislative and policy priorities in a way that folks who come in with the legal executive background don’t always do. And so oftentimes you can kind of see that, I would say over six to nine months, those first three to four months, people are mostly getting accustomed. I always make the joke like where the water cooler is, where copy machines are, but after you get into that, it is kind of natural for how their brain operates and how they’re going to manage across so many different subject matters. And for most folks, when they take over into an AG office, are continually surprised by the true number of subject matter areas that they cover.

When you’re providing counsel to state agencies and boards and departments, all of a sudden you’re realizing that you have lawyers dealing in licensing, you have lawyers dealing in gaming, you have lawyers dealing in public lands and fisheries, and you have ones dealing with eminent domain as much as you do consumer protection and antitrust. And there are so many ways to build those efficiencies, but still, I have yet to meet an AG who thinks that they have enough people to adequately take on all the challenges facing their office. And so it becomes a way to prioritize your office and put in the person power behind the areas that are your going concern.

Keturah Taylor

Sure. And I mean, while we’re talking about staffing up these offices, for our listeners who might not be familiar, do incoming newly elected attorneys general typically retain a lot of the top line staff from the predecessor? Is there typically a large amount of turnover? What have you seen in your years this space?

Stephen Cobb

It really varies from state to state. Some offices are unionized, some all of the attorneys are at will. Generally, I think what you see is from the section chief level down, there’s a lot of stability. Those tend to be career folks who are there for the general mission of the office. But when you have new folks come in and it’s at the deputy Chief Deputy policy comms level, you’ll see often wholesale change when a new AG comes in. Some offices don’t lend themselves to that amount of change, and it’s a very small group, but for the most part, you’re looking at probably  to  new appointees coming in to reflect the new direction and the new leadership within the office.

Keturah Taylor

And I think as we’ve seen over the years representing companies who are before these AG offices and in investigations or whatever it may be, sometimes that’s a good thing and sometimes that’s a bad thing, right? Sometimes that meeting priority will take focus off of your industry or your issue, or sometimes it’ll shine a spotlight that you don’t necessarily want there. But either way, it’ll be a sea change.

Stephen Cobb

Absolutely. But it is an important dichotomy to note that most of all of what we call line lawyers, the section chiefs, these are folks who are there for the long term and those are not changing, but those which become the policy priorities of the AGs, and if you look back eight,  years, which was on the front burner of going concerns for regulatory enforcement aren’t the same as they are today. And so there is that flexibility that comes in and when you have new elected officials and the reason they ran for office might be different than their predecessor, and you can expect that to be reflected in how active the office is in a given space.

Keturah Taylor

Well, I think it’s fair to say everyone in the who lives in breathes in the AG space like we do, we’re certainly going to miss H.E Rosenblum and AG Ferguson. We likely see Ferguson in the governor’s office, but we’ll both be missed and their influence will leave a bit of a vacuum. But it’ll certainly be interested to see who steps in to those roles.

Stephen Cobb

Yeah, I’m not going to let you off the hook that quick. I made you play odds maker in Oregon. I’m going to make you play odds maker again in Washington State. So couple questions. Three, candidates. Two, move forward in August. Who are you taking to move to the general in November?

Keturah Taylor

I think your earlier comments influenced my thinking on this a little bit. I’m going to say Nick Brown and Peter on a move forward to the general election.

Stephen Cobb

And at the general, do you think that they can eclipse Ferguson’s .% spread from , or do you think that the Republican will win outright?

Keturah Taylor

I don’t think the Republican will win outright. I think here, I’m going to guess the Democratic candidate eclipses what Ferguson had the prior election, which is interesting that it was significantly lower than Biden. But Biden’s on a ticket again this year, it’ll be a new face for the Democratic candidate for AG this year. And I think that they’ll maybe get a slightly higher margin than Ferguson did.

Stephen Cobb

Well, you heard it here, folks, people Keturah Taylor taking Nick Brown to eclipse . points, feeling bullish on the Democratic nominees in Washington state. I’m going to agree with you on the primary, but just like I did in Oregon, I’m going to take Nick slightly below the . You can catch us back for a follow-up podcast in November where I tell Keturah that she was right and I was wrong. And yes, and she is gracious, takes it in stride and does not rub my nose in it.

Keturah Taylor

And if it goes the other way and Steven was right and I was wrong, I’ll graciously decline to be on the podcast.

Stephen Cobb

Yeah, that’s exactly what’ll happen. Well, that’s fantastic. Well, a lot to continue to keep our eyes on as we go into this election season. Still in full swing, we’ll see as in the weeks and months ahead, whether or not there is a surprise, both for the Presidential and in any of these AG races. This has been another installment of state AG Pulse Couture. Thanks so much for joining me and thanks everybody for tuning in.